US Economic Health Page Updated for January

With the release of the Real Personal Income data for January, 2016, I have updated my US economy tracking page to reflect the data up to the end of January.

You will notice I have added qualifiers to the summary.  I compare the current values to historical results to make these distinctions.  For the Big 4, the possibilities are either "Expanding" or "Contracting" at the rate of slowly, moderately, or quickly. For the Risk 4, the possibilities are either "High" or "Low" and can be designated slightly, moderately, or extremely. Finally, the MasterPhase possibilities are "Improving" or "Deteriorating" at the rate of slowly, moderately, or quickly.

For more information, please visit:

http://www.maintrimmercapital.com/p/us-economic-health.html

US Financial Risk 4 Index Indicates High Financial Risk in January

As of the end of January, The average of the "Risk 4," a measure of four of the FRED's risk tracking indexes, has crossed above zero, indicating a high risk of financial crisis in the US economy.  The RISK 4 are the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI), Kansas City Fed Financial Stress Index (KCFSI), Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), and the Cleveland Financial Stress Index (CFSI).

The last three times this crossover occurred were August 2007, May 2010, and August 2011. We know that both 2010 and 2011 featured large corrections in the market, but, ultimately, were in the course of a long term bull market. However, the 2007 event preceded the major US financial crisis.

For more information, visit my US Economic Health page: http://www.maintrimmercapital.com/p/us-economic-health.html

Markets Very Oversold- POS Stays on the Sidelines Due to Uncertain LT Trend

There are very oversold readings occurring in the underlying technical indicators that I track. As you may have predicted, recent market action has triggered my technical indicator for signalling an uncertain strength of the LT trend of the US markets. Therefore, the POS will not trade until conditions improve, even though things are very oversold and we could get a bounce.